The MLB isn’t what it used to be. The teams that spend money aren’t always going to be the teams at the top of the standings when all is said and done.
The New York Mets and San Diego Padres went above and beyond over the last two seasons, only to have losing records at the All-Star break.
Are teams like the Mets and Padres good buy-low spots right now? Let’s look at each team’s odds to make the MLB Playoffs.
Odds to Make MLB Playoffs
MLB betting odds are current as of Thursday, July 13, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
AL Lines to Make Playoffs
- Tampa Bay Rays (-2500)
- Houston Astros (-310)
- Baltimore Orioles (-295)
- Texas Rangers (-235)
- Toronto Blue Jays (-220)
- New York Yankees (-155)
- Minnesota Twins (-145)
- Cleveland Guardians (+130)
- Boston Red Sox (+250)
- Seattle Mariners (+265)
- Los Angeles Angels (+750)
- Chicago White Sox (+2200)
- Detroit Tigers (+2500)
- Oakland Athletics (N/A)
- Kansas City Royals (N/A)
NL Lines to Make Playoffs
- Atlanta Braves (N/A)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-1100)
- Miami Marlins (-230)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-200)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (-170)
- Milwaukee Brewers (-145)
- San Francisco Giants (-125)
- Cincinnati Reds (+100)
- San Diego Padres (+300)
- New York Mets (+360)
- Chicago Cubs (+650)
- Louis Cardinals (+1500)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+2800)
- Washington Nationals (N/A)
- Colorado Rockies (N/A)
Two surprising teams with over a 66% probability of making the playoffs include the Baltimore Orioles and Miami Marlins.
The Orioles are in the ultra-competitive AL East, but some of their young talent has shined and should continue to produce at a high level.
Meanwhile, the Marlins also have a high probability of making the playoffs. They reached the postseason during the shortened pandemic year, but it’s been a minute since they did so in a full 162-game season.
MLB Division Winner Favorites
AL East: Tampa Bay Rays (-295)
The Tampa Bay Rays started the regular season on fire. After finishing the first half 3-7, the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays made up some ground.
The AL East has five teams with a win percentage of .527 or better. It’s easily the toughest division in baseball.
AL Central: Minnesota Twins (-145)
Although the Cleveland Guardians occupy first place in the AL Central by 0.5 games, the Minnesota Twins are still expected to win the division.
The Guardians and Twins will play multiple series in the second half of the season. Those games will help decide which team wins the Central.
AL West: Houston Astros (-115)
Like the Twins, the Astros aren’t currently first in the AL West. That spot belongs to the Texas Rangers.
However, the Rangers went 3-7 to finish out the first half of the year and are now only two games up in the division heading into the second half.
- See where the defending champs sit in our 2023 World Series odds.
NL East: Atlanta Braves (-5000)
The Braves are running away with the NL East.
They’ve earned 60 wins already this season and lead the Miami Marlins by 8.5 games. The Phillies are 12 games out, and the Mets are 18.5 games out of first.
The Braves won’t choke this lead away.
NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers (-110)
Oddsmakers are still giving the Brewers the benefit of the doubt, despite the Cincinnati Reds leading the division by one game.
The Reds are a group of younger players that don’t have much experience. That could be pivotal in what will be a tight race between the two teams down the stretch.
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers (-230)
The Dodgers finally regained first place in the NL West before the All-Star break, but Arizona had been leading for most of the year.
The Dodgers have won 57.3% of their games, while the Diamondbacks have won 57.1%.
The San Francisco Giants are still in the mix, too. And you also can’t rule out the Padres just yet.
AL Wild Card Favorites
Baltimore Orioles (-295)
The AL Wild Card is wide open heading into the second half of the season. The Orioles have a solid cushion of five games. However, Baltimore’s divisional games after the break won’t be easy.
Texas Rangers (-235)
Although the Rangers are currently leading the AL West, oddsmakers believe the Astros will win the division and push Texas into a wild-card spot.
The Rangers have won 52 games this season. They’ll likely compete against Baltimore, Toronto, New York, and Boston for the AL’s three wild-card positions.
NL Wild Card Favorites
Miami Marlins (-230)
I’m skeptical of Miami. The Marlins have a -5 run differential but are 53-39 on the season. They’ve won 30 games at home but are just 20-23 against teams with a winning record.
Philadelphia Phillies (-200)
The Phillies wouldn’t be in the playoffs if the season ended today. However, oddsmakers still have the Phillies at -200 to make the playoffs and earn a wild-card spot.
They must keep winning games and root against the Marlins, Diamondbacks, Giants, and Brewers.
Best Bets to Make MLB Playoffs
San Diego Padres (+300)
The San Diego Padres have a run differential of +39 but have gone 18-24 on the road this season. The Padres are built to win now and have a ridiculous lineup filled with top talent.
San Diego is not going to win the NL West, but at +300 and just six games out of the wild-card race, the Padres have some value worth taking a risk on.
San Francisco Giants (-125)
The NL West has performed at a high level this season. The Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Giants all have winning records and occupy playoff spots heading into the second half.
While these teams will have to play one another, they’ve got plenty of other teams on their schedule. The Giants have consistently won at home and on the road, so I like San Francisco’s chances at sticking around to earn a wild-card spot.
At -125, we’re getting a fair price.