After years of close calls, Gerrit Cole finally secured his first Cy Young Award, and there’s no indication that the Yankees’ pitcher is satisfied with that — he’s coming for another.
But, the competition is as strong as ever, so it’ll be a tall task for him to repeat the feat.
Let’s take a look at how Cole and the rest of the top contenders stack up in the latest AL Cy Young betting odds and get into some winner picks.
AL Cy Young Odds
MLB odds used for these AL Cy Young best bets are from Friday, March 8, and courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
- Gerrit Cole (+590)
- Framber Valdez (+800)
- Kevin Gausman (+800)
- Corbin Burnes (+1000)
- Tarik Skubal (+1000)
- George Kirby (+1200)
- Luis Castillo (+1300)
- Pablo Lopez (+1600)
- Grayson Rodriguez (+1600)
- Cole Ragans (+1800)
- Dylan Cease (+2500)
- Logan Gilbert (+2500)
AL Cy Young Best Bet
Tarik Skubal (+1000)
After missing some time on the IL to start last year, Skubal had a real breakout performance in the second half of the 2023 campaign.
He tossed an ERA of 2.80 and a ridiculous 0.896 WHIP, with underlying metrics to match. His one relative weakness was a poor run value on breaking pitches, but that number has been up and down year to year for him, and could easily rebound this season.
What’s more, is that his overall run value was still really solid, and we’ve seen plenty of pitchers post genuinely elite seasons with mediocre breaking pitches alongside excellent fastball and changeup metrics, which Skubal has.
With his whole team expected to potentially take a step up in a weak Central, the odds have Skubal as a top candidate for this award for a reason.
[pick id="177056"]
AL Cy Young Favorites
Gerrit Cole (+590)
Cole is a favorite for a reason. He finally got his award last year, and he’s been a top pitcher in the AL for much longer than that.
He led the AL in ERA and the majors in WHIP and shutouts en route to the long-overdue individual honor.
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But can he get it done again? It’s hard to say. This will be his age-33 season, a point at which it’s fair to begin to wonder when a pitcher is going to decline.
The good news for Cole is that his advanced stats were also really strong. His pitch-based run value was good or great in all pitch categories, and he has already learned how to thrive with a control-based style that de-emphasizes strikeouts.
That’s a great sign for longevity as a top option, so don’t be shocked if Cole goes back-to-back.
[pick id="177057"]
Framber Valdez (+800)
Valdez is as likely as anyone in the AL to be a beneficiary of a level of team success that helps players stay in the national spotlight.
That being said, both his traditional and advanced numbers declined last year, most notably his hard-hit rate, which was alarmingly in the sixth percentile.
That has never really been a particularly strong metric for Valdez, but it did go in the wrong direction, as did many others, including ERA and pitching run value.
We’ll have to wait and see if Valdez is in decline, or if he simply had a down year due to issues that might be fixable by the Astros’ impeccable pitching coaching staff.
AL Cy Young Contenders
Kevin Gausman (+800)
After receiving Cy Young votes for the first time in his final season as a San Francisco Giant, Gausman has done so in the past two seasons, his first couple as a Toronto Blue Jay.
The AL East is a tough division to pitch in, but Gausman has done a great job, especially in 2022 when he led the AL in FIP.
This past season, his 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings were also an American League-best, supported by elite fastball and changeup value.
We know just about what we’re going to get from Gausman at this point. We’ll just have to see how the field shakes out around him.
[pick id="177058"]
Corbin Burnes (+1000)
Burnes joins Cole on this list as a former winner, although he won his 2021 award in the National League.
That was also his first season as an All-Star as he broke onto the scene with an MLB-best 2.43 ERA. He has appeared in the Midsummer Classic each year since then and will look to do the same after crossing over to the American League to bolster an already-solid Orioles rotation.
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Like Cole and Gausman, Burnes will also need to navigate the challenging AL East, but unlike the other two, his team is fairly likely to come out on top.
If Baltimore can build on a fantastic 2023 season and Burnes establishes himself as its definitive ace, which he should be able to do as Kyle Bradish will start the season on the injured list, he’ll be a great contender to join an exclusive club of pitchers to win the Cy Young in both the AL and NL.
AL Cy Young Sleepers
Luis Castillo (+1300)
There’s one major thing holding Castillo back: first percentile offspeed run value.
It’s hard to make it to the very top level in today’s league without a strong changeup, but to be fair, Castillo has done a solid job thereof so far. His ERA has hovered just over 3.00 since coming to Seattle, while his WHIP is just below 1.100.
The other issue with Castillo’s candidacy is the bats he has to face. The Astros, Rangers, and at times, even the Angels can do some real damage to pitchers’ metrics.
Still, with the current MLB scheduling model, he’ll have to face his division foes less than in years past and should continue to put up some great numbers for the M’s.
[pick id="177059"]
Justin Verlander (+4500)
Verlander has long defied Father Time, but he eventually catches up to everyone.
However, there’s little reason to believe that Verlander is close to done, other than the fact that this will be his age-41 season.
His pitching run value was remarkably in the 96th percentile last year, and he was once again at the heart of a deep Astros playoff run.
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As you would expect of a player of his tenure, Verlander’s fastball velocity has eroded over the years, but his effectiveness has not.
There’s a reason Verlander isn’t the favorite for this award anymore, but he’s just a season removed from his last win in 2022 and is coming off of a solid campaign.
45-1 odds represent great value, even given the potential that he might start the season slightly late, leaving little wiggle room to miss starts later on.
Past AL Cy Young Winners
2023: Gerrit Cole
2022: Justin Verlander
2021: Robbie Ray
2020: Shane Bieber
2019: Justin Verlander
2018: Blake Snell
2017: Corey Kluber
2016: Rick Porcello
2015: Dallas Keuchel
2014: Corey Kluber