For the first time since 2011, the odds-on favorite to be named AL MVP is not a Los Angeles Angel.
With Mike Trout in decline and Shohei Ohtani across town with the Dodgers, it’s a completely different landscape for the American League’s most prestigious individual honor.
Let’s take a look at the latest AL MVP odds, identify some of the top candidates, and pick out the best value on the board.
AL MVP Odds
MLB odds used for these American League MVP best bets are from Thursday, March 7, and courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
- Aaron Judge (+600)
- Juan Soto (+600)
- Yordan Alvarez (+800)
- Julio Rodriguez (+1000)
- Corey Seager (+1000)
- Adley Rutschman (+1300)
- Bobby Witt Jr. (+1500)
- Gunnar Henderson (+1500)
- Kyle Tucker (+1700)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+2200)
- Jose Ramirez (+2500)
- Rafael Devers (+2800)
- Bo Bichette (+3000)
AL MVP Best Bet
Adley Rutschman (+1300)
When one door closes, another opens.
Joe Mauer just made it into the Baseball Hall of Fame, and we could have a catcher win AL MVP for the first time since he did so in 2009.
The Baltimore Orioles had a great offseason, highlighted by acquiring superstar pitcher Corbin Burnes, and should be poised to run the AL East once more.
- Check out our AL East odds & predictions.
Rutschman, the leader of the squad, has the unique ability to win this award as a catcher because he’s such a strong switch-hitting bat that he appears as a DH when he’s not behind the dish — he started 108 games as a catcher last year and 46 as a DH.
Rutschman will have the narrative if he leads his team to another title in the sport’s toughest division, and as a solid defensive catcher with plenty of offensive volume, he should be a real MVP contender.
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AL MVP Favorites
Aaron Judge (+600)
This is a pretty simple proposition: If Judge stays healthy, he will likely reclaim the AL MVP award.
New York’s star slugger completed the insane task of winning an MVP over a healthy Ohtani in 2022 and looked to be on his way to a very comparable season last year before injuring his toe.
Judge undeniably has the best bat in the majors right now and arguably one of the 10 best of all time in terms of peak ability. He is also a highly valuable defensive outfielder with the ability to play multiple positions.
With Ohtani out of the way, nobody can compete with Judge if he plays 140-plus games but is it a good investment to bet on him to do so? It’s been a relatively rare feat but if he’s simply able to stay healthy, a bet on him will look like a brilliant gamble.
[pick id="175835"]
Juan Soto (+600)
It’s not every day you see two teammates as the top contenders for an individual award. However, it’s very reminiscent of those star-heavy Angels teams.
Perhaps that’s a bad sign for the Yankees, as Trout and Ohtani never made the postseason together, but it’s hard to complain about a young, highly talented powerful lefty in the Bronx, especially with plate discipline like Soto’s.
- Read more on the Yankees in our American League Pennant Odds.
If he hits ahead of Judge in the lineup, Soto will have more pitches to hit than ever. And if he hits after Judge, he’ll have plenty of chances to drive in runs.
The issue for Soto (and potentially Judge) is that voters could be split if both stars have a great season. And if Judge gets injured or drastically underperforms, that would be a huge issue for the team success aspect of this award.
AL MVP Contenders
Yordan Alvarez (+900)
Alvarez is a lesser version of Judge. He has dealt with some injuries, but when he’s on the field, he’s undeniably one of the best bats in the majors.
The other issue for him is that while Judge gets a WAR bump by being one of the best defensive outfielders in Major League Baseball, Alvarez can play some defense but is often used as a DH.
The great David Ortiz wasn’t able to overcome that dent to an MVP narrative, so can Alvarez? We’ll see, but his Astros will certainly have to ward off competition in the AL West if he’s going to win.
[pick id="175837"]
Julio Rodriguez (+900)
This could be a great opportunity to buy relatively long odds on one of the highest-upside stars in the game.
Rodriguez is still only 23 years old, and in the theme of doing everything on a rapid trajectory, he got over his sophomore slump in half of a season.
- Get the latest NL MVP odds & our best bets.
After securing the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2022, he got off to a rough start with a .721 first-half OPS but roared back with a figure of .941 in the second half.
At Rodriguez’s age, we can expect improvement and progression each season, and the fact that he turned it around within the 2023 campaign is a huge deal. Expect him to take a legitimate superstar leap in his third year, and emerge as a real AL MVP contender.
AL MVP Sleepers
Mike Trout (+2200)
Is Mike Trout an MVP sleeper? It feels wrong, but that’s where we are.
The Angels are not making the playoffs, and while that’s never stopped him before, the competition for this award in the AL is tougher than it has been since Trout was duking it out with Miguel Cabrera in the early 2010s.
Like we’ve unfortunately been forced to discuss for so many candidates, a bet on Trout is also a gamble on his health. Trout hasn’t played 130-plus games since 2019, or 150-plus games since 2016, which is when his injury issues began.
Until last season, he perennially posted an OPS near or above 1.000 when healthy. Let’s see if Trout can return to form this year.
[pick id="175838"]
Rafael Devers (+2800)
Devers might not have the team success component, but the Red Sox have shocked the world before and this value is simply too good to pass up.
We’re talking about one of the best young hitters in the sport, who is in prime position for a bounce-back season after borderline-inexplicably missing the All-Star Game a year ago.
Devers did heat up as the year went on, so expect him to come into 2024 in great form.
Past AL MVP Winners
2023: Shohei Ohtani
2022: Aaron Judge
2021: Shohei Ohtani
2020: Jose Abreu
2019: Mike Trout
2018: Mookie Betts
2017: Jose Altuve
2016: Mike Trout
2015: Josh Donaldson
2014: Mike Trout