Baseball’s biggest star has come to the National League, but with a twist; Shohei Ohtani will not be pitching this season.
Still, he’s one of the very best bats in the majors and is still a significant addition for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Can he win NL MVP without throwing a pitch now that he has escaped Aaron Judge? Or will Ronald Acuna Jr. defend his title?
Let’s take a look at the latest NL MVP odds and pick out my best bets to win the award in 2024.
NL MVP Odds
MLB odds used for these NL MVP best bets are from Thursday, March 7, and courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (+500)
- Mookie Betts (+700)
- Shohei Ohtani (+850)
- Freddie Freeman (+900)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (+900)
- Matt Olson (+1000)
- Bryce Harper (+1200)
- Trea Turner (+1800)
- Austin Riley (+1800)
- Corbin Carroll (+2000)
- Pete Alonso (+2500)
- Manny Machado (+2900)
NL MVP Best Bet
Bryce Harper (+1200)
Unlike some of the players we’ll discuss in a moment, who are on veritable superteams, Harper has the clear distinction of being “the man” in Philly.
His legendary postseason run in 2022 cemented him as a hero in his new hometown, and the two-time MVP should be back to his best after spending much of last year in a clearly weakened state as he took the unorthodox approach of essentially rehabbing his UCL tear while playing as a DH.
Harper’s power was nonexistent early on, with just three homers in his first 56 games, but he smacked 18 in his last 70. If he can play more like his second-half self, which was in line with what we’ve seen when he’s healthy, that’s a pace of about 40 homers.
Paired with his outstanding on-base ability at the heart of a solid Philly lineup, it could be a recipe for this two-time MVP to win a third as other top contenders have to duke it out with their own teammates in order to earn votes.
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NL MVP Favorites
Ronald Acuna Jr. (+500)
It’s tough betting on a defending MVP to get the job done again, but there’s plenty of reason to believe that Acuna is just getting started as he enters his age-26 season.
Yes, you read that right: the six-year MLB veteran was just 25 when he put up his outrageous 41-homer, 73-steal season.
Still, it’s going to be slightly hard for Acuna to stand out among a stacked Braves lineup. He’ll need to essentially match his 2023 production in order to hold everyone’s attention the same way.
Atlanta will also need to once again navigate a very challenging NL East for Acuna’s case to be taken seriously, especially given the standard they’ve set in recent years.
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Mookie Betts (+700)
Let’s not mince words here, this is the worst value anywhere on the board.
Betts is a great player, but he was fortunate to win his AL MVP in a year where Judge was injured, Ohtani had yet to break out, and Trout still led the AL in OPS.
Now, he’s not even the definitive best player on his team. The argument could and should be made that he’s the third-best bat on the roster.
- Read more on the loaded Dodgers in our National League Pennant Odds.
Betts’s relatively uncharacteristic power surge last year was unsustainable. Almost any source that tracks distance and home run probability of batted balls will assert that he was extremely lucky to hit as many as he did.
Expect a regression in that area, as well as difficulty outshining Freddie Freeman and Ohtani, even as just a hitter.
NL MVP Contenders
Shohei Ohtani (+850)
This is, once again, pretty bad value for a Los Angeles Dodger.
Next year, Ohtani should absolutely be favored, but his bat alone may not be enough to stand out in an absolutely loaded LA lineup. We could also potentially see a dip in power like we did from Harper as he recovered from a similar injury and surgery.
- Check out our AL MVP odds & best bets.
It’s also hard to imagine the Dodgers pushing Ohtani too hard in his recovery given the money they just paid him, so expect him to miss games if he’s feeling sore.
That being said, these odds are much more reasonable than the price for Betts. Ohtani only played 135 games and still led the American League in homers, OBP, Slugging, and OPS last year.
We could also talk about his staggering WAR numbers. But while they’re solid when just looking at offense, they are of course boosted tremendously by pitching and will therefore suffer this season since he won’t even be fielding.
Freddie Freeman (+900)
Let’s talk about just one more Dodger, another one of the staggering four former MVPs on the roster.
Like Ohtani and Betts, Freeman’s came on a team other than LA. But unlike that duo’s, his came in the shortened COVID season of 2020. He’ll surely want one from a slightly more complete campaign.
Freeman is one of the most consistent hitters in the sport, as he led the majors in sweet spot percentage last season. He has hit at least .300 for four consecutive seasons, with a potential eight-year run only “marred” by a .295 campaign.
His OPS similarly lives above .900, if not pushing 1.000 at his best. Expect him to rise above the rest of the stars on his team and emerge as a true leader for the offense.
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NL MVP Sleepers
Corbin Carroll (+2000)
Let’s talk about a star who is the definitive centerpiece of his team.
The reigning NL Rookie of the Year has his eyes on even bigger individual silverware as his team also looks to take just one further step after losing in the World Series.
- Get the latest 2024 World Series betting odds.
It’s also worth noting that awards voters absolutely love this guy. Carroll was fifth in MVP voting last season and joined Betts and Acuna in the First-Team All-MLB outfield despite ranking just sixth amongst qualifying outfielders (which does not include second-teamer Aaron Judge) in OPS and posting an ugly dWAR of -0.7 in the outfield.
If he can ward off the dreaded sophomore slump and even take a step up, expect voters to take note and potentially award the effort with an MVP.
Cody Bellinger (+5000)
Bellinger has gone through the full arc of a rise, an MVP peak, a fall, and a career revival, so it’s easy to forget that he’s just going into his age-28 season.
Bellinger got his start at the age of 21, and he showed last year in his seventh big-league season, his first away from Los Angeles, that he has plenty of great baseball left.
The Cubs had a tremendous surge late last season but collapsed late due to a series of highly improbable events. The NL Central is incredibly vulnerable, and Chicago competed well within the division towards the end of last year.
If the Cubbies can recapture something close to their best 2023 form, which should be very possible after retaining much of the roster, expect Bellinger to receive even more MVP buzz than he did last year when he finished 10th in the voting.
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Past NL MVP Winners
2023: Ronald Acuna Jr.
2022: Paul Goldschmidt
2021: Bryce Harper
2020: Freddie Freeman
2019: Cody Bellinger
2018: Christian Yelich
2017: Giancarlo Stanton
2016: Kris Bryant
2015: Bryce Harper
2014: Clayton Kershaw