Last year, Blake Snell won the NL Cy Young Award, but right now he’s not even on a team.
It was a tight race to the finish as Justin Steele faded down the stretch just like the rest of the Cubs, and we can expect an almost entirely new assortment of names this year as the senior circuit’s best arms vie for the league’s top pitching honor.
Let’s look at the latest NL Cy Young odds and make some winner picks for the 2024 MLB season.
NL Cy Young Odds
MLB odds used for these NL Cy Young best bets are from Friday, March 8, and courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
- Spencer Strider (+475)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+1000)
- Zack Wheeler (+1000)
- Max Fried (+1200)
- Logan Webb (+1200)
- Zac Gallen (+1400)
- Justin Steele (+1800)
- Aaron Nola (+2200)
- Freddy Peralta (+2500)
- Eury Perez (+2500)
- Chris Sale (+2500)
NL Cy Young Best Bet
Max Fried (+1200)
Fried only started 14 games last season, but it was his third season out of the past four with an ERA of 2.55 or better, a streak only snapped by a very solid 3.04 mark in 2021 en route to a World Series title.
Fried was the Cy Young runner-up that season. Expect him to get the job done this year.
The Braves should be a juggernaut once again, and while another Atlanta pitcher is the heavy favorite for this award, Fried is the better choice, especially at this price.
He is a paragon of consistency, a true anchor for the rotation, and there’s nothing systemic about his injury history that implies that he shouldn’t be healthy this season.
[pick id="177359"]
NL Cy Young Favorites
Spencer Strider (+475)
You can make the argument that Strider should be favored, but even so, these odds imply that he is twice as likely as any other candidate to win. That’s outrageous pricing.
Let’s go a step further and explain why he shouldn’t even be favored, most notably because he’s not the best starting pitcher on the Braves.
- See where the Braves stand in the National League Pennant odds.
There’s no doubt that Strider can strike batters out, but his game isn’t well-rounded enough. His metrics are average in key areas like fastball run value, walk rate, and barrel rate, leading to a concerning number of flare-ups.
He had five outings last year with five or more earned runs, and another five with four allowed. Strider only put up six scoreless outings, compared to 13 for Cy Young winner Blake Snell.
Strider’s stuff is great, he just might not be there yet in terms of consistency.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+1000)
This is another outrageous price.
Yes, Yamamoto projects to be an ace in Major League Baseball, but the second favorite for this award should frankly be someone who has thrown at least one pitch in the league.
Yamamoto has not had a smooth Spring Training so far, which says nothing about his long-term outlook but does imply that there could be some very understandable growing pains as he adjusts to the majors.
Still, there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic about Yamamoto, a 25-year-old who has come to the U.S. at a significantly younger age than some other Japanese stars of years past.
In Japan, he strung together three consecutive seasons with a sub-2.00 ERA before crossing the Pacific and had a good showing in the 2023 World Baseball Classic.
Zack Wheeler (+1000)
After three consecutive seasons with a sub-3.00 ERA, Wheeler took a jump up to 3.61 last season, making him a prime bounce-back candidate as his underlying metrics didn’t move all that much.
The Phillies should be a solid contender once again, so Wheeler should be able to rack up plenty of wins and pitch efficiently while protecting decent leads more often than not.
He has to establish himself as the clear ace ahead of Aaron Nola, but that shouldn’t be a problem in a year that should feature plenty of positive regression.
[pick id="177360"]
NL Cy Young Contenders
Logan Webb (+1200)
Webb took a minor step back last year as the Giants took a major one, but he should still be considered one of the top arms in the NL.
His hard-hit rate last year was worse than usual, but his walk rate was in the 99th percentile, so there’s still plenty to like when it comes to his trademark control-heavy style.
Team success might be hard to come by for Webb, but that’s usually not a dealbreaker with this award.
The Giants should be solid enough for Webb to at least usually win when he throws well, which is just about all you need in this era of advanced analytics.
[pick id="177362"]
Zac Gallen (+1400)
Gallen has been a top-five finisher for this award the past two seasons, and with perhaps some national media attention headed towards the defending NL champion Diamondbacks, he might get the voter boost he needs to get over the hump and win it.
- Wager on more MLB futures with our NL MVP betting odds.
Interestingly enough, Gallen’s numbers took a step back last year compared to his exceptional 2022, but he finished higher in the voting, a good sign that he’s gaining some brand recognition in the voters’ eyes.
Gallen’s fastball and changeup were still both among the most valuable pitches in the majors in 2023. If he can get his curveball and/or slider back to where they both were in 2022, he’ll be a serious contender once again.
NL Cy Young Sleepers
Kodai Senga (+3300)
In his first season, Senga kept his ERA below 3.00 and struck out over 200 batters.
Now that he’s past the first-year learning curve, the sky’s the limit for the Mets’ quiet star pitcher.
- Find out where the Mets rank in our World Series odds.
The team might need to do a bit more than last year for him to get the buzz he deserves, but Senga’s numbers should speak for themselves.
After a phenomenal second half of the 2023 campaign, expect him to keep up the momentum and be one of the NL’s best pitchers this year.
[pick id="177363"]
Joe Musgrove (+5000)
Musgrove has never received Cy Young votes, and it’s hard to understand why.
He did miss plenty of time last year, but in 2022, he kept his ERA under 3.00 and his WHIP below 1.100, and was completely shut out of the ballot.
This year could be the one where he gets the recognition he deserves.
The Padres are in a position where the only way they can go is up, and if they’re going to have newfound success, he’s likely to be a major part of it.
Past NL Cy Young Winners
2023: Blake Snell
2022: Sandy Alcantara
2021: Corbin Burnes
2020: Trevor Bauer
2019: Jacob deGrom
2018: Jacob deGrom
2017: Max Scherzer
2016: Max Scherzer
2015: Jake Arrieta
2014: Clayton Kershaw